Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,341$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,429.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(119,429.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,249$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,946.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,946.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,528$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $153,548$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,381.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(148,381.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,249$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,219.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,219.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,309$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,683$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,468.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,468.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $279$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(52.5 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 26.8)}}\) (asimptote \(267.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,680$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,609$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,865.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(123,865.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $129$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(250.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,275$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,898$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(405 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,509.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 75.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,509.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $237$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,906$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $923$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(212 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{895.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(895.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(6.69 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16.6\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $345$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,077$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,126.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 64.5)}}\) (asimptote \(99,126.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $351$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{485.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(485.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,686$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,434$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,389.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(14,389.7\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $846$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(98.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{892.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(892.6\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,588$ on 2020-05-21