Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,341$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,429.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(119,429.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,249$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,946.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,946.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,528$ on 2020-05-21

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $153,548$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,381.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(148,381.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,249$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,219.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,219.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,309$ on 2020-05-21

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,683$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,468.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,468.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $279$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(52.5 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 26.8)}}\) (asimptote \(267.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,680$ on 2020-05-21

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,609$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,865.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(123,865.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $129$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(250.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,275$ on 2020-05-21

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,898$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(405 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,509.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 75.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,509.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,906$ on 2020-05-21

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $923$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(212 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{895.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(895.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.69 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $345$ on 2020-05-21

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,077$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,126.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 64.5)}}\) (asimptote \(99,126.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $351$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{485.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(485.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,686$ on 2020-05-21

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,434$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,389.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(14,389.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $846$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(98.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{892.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(892.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,588$ on 2020-05-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 91%
Israel recovered 73%
Turkey recovered 58%
Malaysia recovered 56%
Georgia recovered 39%
Singapore recovered 15%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,142$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,559.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,559.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(69.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(262.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $716$ on 2020-05-21

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,059$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,720.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,720.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $114$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(42.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 16.3)}}\) (asimptote \(110.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,149$ on 2020-05-21

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $721$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(74.3 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{740.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(740.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224$ on 2020-05-21

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,812$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,163.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,163.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,672$ on 2020-05-21